Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Shooter?

Shooter + Noir

Of 39 developers who shipped a Noir Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×3993 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 102 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 102 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $748 → $70k → $3.6k → $1.1k → $4.7k → $5.7k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,380)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 143
Announced 102
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, FPS
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Gore, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 21,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M MOUSE: P.I. For Hire 2026 · $13M Max Payne 2011 · $3.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
Max Payne 3 older $19.99 55,150 86% 1.7M $33M (exactly $33,073,455) Rockstar Studios
Mafia II: Definitive Edition older $29.99 28,886 74% 867k $26M (exactly $25,988,734) Hangar 13, D3T
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Max Payne older $9.99 12,773 88% 383k $3.8M (exactly $3,828,068) Remedy Entertainment
Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne older $9.99 12,102 93% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,626,969) Remedy Entertainment
Fallen Aces · EA older $14.99 6,608 96% 198k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,618) Trey Powell, Jason Bond
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified older $19.99 4,857 67% 146k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) 2K Marin
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Intravenous older $19.99 2,872 91% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,722,338) Explosive Squat Games
Better Than Dead · EA $14.99 1,500 72% 45k $675k (exactly $674,550) MONTE GALLO
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Midnight Murder Club $9.99 304 71% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Velan Studios
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
TEXNOPLAZM · EA $15.99 65 98% 2.0k $31k (exactly $31,180) Mothership Loudspeakerz
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.