Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Noir

Of 22 developers who shipped a Noir Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×14844 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 37 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $8.1k → $299 → $2.2k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,380)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 48
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 23,684 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Shadows of Doubt 2024 · $11M The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M City of Gangsters 2021 · $1.2M Dystopika 2024 · $716k Race The Sun 2013 · $592k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
Dystopika older $6.99 3,413 95% 102k $716k (exactly $715,706) Voids Within
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
The Shrouded Isle older $12.99 1,166 71% 35k $454k (exactly $454,390) Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short)
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios
Thought Experiment Simulator older $4.99 620 81% 19k $93k (exactly $92,814) HoHo Game Studio
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
Hellwatch $9.99 27 44% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FG
RAZE $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) RAZE CLUB
Octopus Goulash $12.99 10 70% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Alessio Serenellini
One Way Mirror: AI · EA $14.99 7 85% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sh… (Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sheep)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.