Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Noir

Only 15 developers shipped a Noir Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Aether & Iron, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×822 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 59 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 59 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $538 → $39k → $3.6k → $71k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,599)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,398)
Top 5% $391k (exactly $390,594)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 39
Announced 59
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Card Battler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,122 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M Soul Hackers 2 2022 · $4.1M This Is the Police 2 2018 · $2.4M The Lamplighters League 2023 · $1.1M Aether & Iron 2026 · $391k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
The Lamplighters League older $49.99 726 71% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) Harebrained Schemes
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
To Hell With The Ugly older $19.99 133 87% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) La Poule Noire, ARTE France
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
HeistGeist $19.90 116 95% 3.5k $69k (exactly $69,252) Doublequote Studio
Neon Blood $17.99 73 60% 2.2k $39k (exactly $39,398) ChaoticBrain Studios
The Allure Of Wanton Cove $9.99 114 78% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Ktulhu Solutions, Aftermath
DarkRanger $6.99 51 66% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅
Mirrored Soul $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Mammothplant, Hex4F, Greasy McBeef
AI Games $59.99 2 50% 60 $3.6k (exactly $3,599) SUNYU Games
蚀界档案 $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) 深圳市创源互娱科技有限公司
天道轮回：我的修仙梦 $5.99 8 37% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Kaka Ku Games Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.