Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Noir
Of 158 developers who shipped a Noir Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 272 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×813 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 272 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,976) |
| Top 5% | $386k (exactly $386,096) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 158 |
| Released games | 463 |
| Announced | 272 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Point & Click
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 35,729 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 272 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
Shadows of Doubt 2024 · $11M 
Murdered: Soul Suspect 2014 · $7.2M 
Word Game 2022 · $6.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
| | Murdered: Soul Suspect | older | $19.99 | 12,051 87% | 362k | $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) | Airtight Games |
| | Word Game | older | $34.99 | 5,930 93% | 178k | $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) | Team9 |
 | The Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 9,700 96% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) | Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | INDIKA | older | $24.99 | 7,034 89% | 211k | $5.3M (exactly $5,273,390) | Odd Meter |
 | Deadlight | older | $14.99 | 9,386 78% | 282k | $4.2M (exactly $4,220,884) | Tequila Works, S.L. |
 | Tangle Tower | older | $19.99 | 6,483 94% | 194k | $3.9M (exactly $3,887,855) | SFB Games |
 | Blacksad: Under the Skin | older | $19.99 | 5,356 83% | 161k | $3.2M (exactly $3,211,993) | Pendulo Studios, YS Interactive |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Duck Detective: The Ghost of Glamping | $9.99 | 2,571 96% | 77k | $771k (exactly $770,529) | Happy Broccoli Games | |
 | Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Clifftop Games | |
 | In Sink: A Co-op Escape Adventure | $14.99 | 1,432 86% | 43k | $644k (exactly $643,970) | Clock Out Games | |
 | The Darkest Files | $19.99 | 668 95% | 20k | $401k (exactly $400,600) | Paintbucket Games | |
 | LumineNight | $24.99 | 515 87% | 15k | $386k (exactly $386,096) | Spickasoft | |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
 | Confidential Killings - A Detective Game | $14.99 | 716 76% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,985) | BRANE, Lorenzo Boni |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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