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Should I ship a Noir Time Manipulation game?
Time Manipulation + Noir
Only 9 developers shipped a Noir Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Drifter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×5978 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.5k (exactly $6,473) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,558) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Time Manipulation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Time Manipulation
- Price point
- $8.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 78,619 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DemonsFair
- + CapitalismFair
- + ModernFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + RacingFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
- + DetectivePoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Katana ZERO 2019 · $30M 
Nobody Wants to Die 2024 · $4.4M 
The Drifter 2025 · $2.8M 
Lucifer Within Us 2020 · $381k 
The Posthumous Investigation 2026 · $332k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Katana ZERO | older | $14.99 | 66,341 97% | 2.0M | $30M (exactly $29,833,548) | Askiisoft |
| | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
| | The Drifter | $19.99 | 4,735 97% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) | Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd | |
| | Lucifer Within Us | older | $19.99 | 635 73% | 19k | $381k (exactly $380,809) | Kitfox Games |
| | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
 | Soundodger 2 | older | $19.99 | 185 95% | 5.6k | $111k (exactly $110,944) | Studio Bean |
 | The Gap | older | $19.99 | 155 94% | 4.7k | $93k (exactly $92,954) | Label This |
 | Hank: Drowning On Dry Land | $2.99 | 140 95% | 4.2k | $13k (exactly $12,558) | My Next Games | |
 | THE BYTE | older | $24.99 | 15 80% | 450 | $11k (exactly $11,246) | AVAKE |
 | Happy Monster | · EA | $8.99 | 41 82% | 1.2k | $11k (exactly $11,058) | Destined Game Studio |
 | Mysteries of Perception | $8.99 | 24 87% | 720 | $6.5k (exactly $6,473) | 50 Rats Games | |
 | Detective Malinowski The Truth Will Be Revealed | $9.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) | Game The Same | |
 | Miryam: The Polluted Land | $4.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | 6.5F Studio | |
 | The Enigma Lounge | $3.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | Seedborne | |
 | Stay in the rhythm | · EA | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Game Virgo |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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