Do I ship it?

GamesCard BattlerCard Battler + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Card Battler?

Card Battler + Noir

Only 16 developers shipped a Noir Card Battler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Slots & Daggers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×26 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×3745 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Battler + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $51k → $14k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Battler + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $12k (exactly $12,225)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $70,501)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 29
Announced 37
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Card Battler; all of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,763 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ArcadeFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  3. + GamblingFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  5. + ZombiesFair17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  6. + Point & ClickFair25 devs · median $629 · 34 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair35 devs · median $628 · 33 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair43 devs · median $449 · 57 announced
  9. + Party GameFair28 devs · median $449 · 35 announced
  10. + SolitaireLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced
  11. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds33 devs · median $31k · 56 announced
  12. + CRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced

All 125 pairs on the Card Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
HeistGeist $19.90 116 95% 3.5k $69k (exactly $69,252) Doublequote Studio
Divine's Howl $9.99 169 89% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Sense13 Studio
Cheater's Table · EA $6.99 69 95% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Lagari
Noir Lords · EA $7.99 51 96% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Speed Trail Games
The Midnight Crimes $10.99 20 60% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) DeadlyCrow Games
Battle Of The Abyss $4.99 33 93% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) 1029studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.