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Should I ship a Noir Interactive Fiction?
Interactive Fiction + Noir
Of 115 developers who shipped a Noir Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×549 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 197 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,432) |
| Top 5% | $261k (exactly $260,869) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 115 |
| Released games | 282 |
| Announced | 197 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Puzzle
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 16,927 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + VampiresFair
- + SportsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + PiratesFair
- + DrivingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Board GameFair
- + SnowFair
- + BuildingFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 9,700 96% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) | Evil Trout Inc. | |
| | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | This Bed We Made | older | $24.99 | 3,187 90% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) | Lowbirth Games |
| | Class of '09: The Re-Up | older | $14.99 | 4,496 97% | 135k | $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) | SBN3 |
| | Tails Noir | older | $24.99 | 2,592 66% | 78k | $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) | Eggnut |
| | Duck Detective: The Secret Salami | older | $9.99 | 6,128 94% | 184k | $1.8M (exactly $1,836,562) | Happy Broccoli Games |
| | IMMORTALITY | older | $19.99 | 1,768 84% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,060,270) | Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid |
| | Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure | older | $15.99 | 2,158 91% | 65k | $1.0M (exactly $1,035,193) | DigiTales Interactive |
| | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
| | Duck Detective: The Ghost of Glamping | $9.99 | 2,571 96% | 77k | $771k (exactly $770,529) | Happy Broccoli Games | |
| | Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Clifftop Games | |
| | Confidential Killings - A Detective Game | $14.99 | 716 76% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,985) | BRANE, Lorenzo Boni | |
| | Detective Instinct: Farewell, My Beloved | $19.99 | 435 93% | 13k | $261k (exactly $260,869) | Armonica LLC | |
| | Radiolight | $14.99 | 414 90% | 12k | $186k (exactly $186,176) | Krystof Knesl | |
| | Mindcop | $14.99 | 413 94% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Andre Gareis | |
| | Mind Diver | $17.99 | 316 94% | 9.5k | $171k (exactly $170,545) | Indoor Sunglasses | |
| | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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