Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Noir

Of 115 developers who shipped a Noir Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×549 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 197 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 197 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $6.5k → $1.0k → $3.2k → $4.3k → $9.0k → $2.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,432)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $260,869)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 282
Announced 197
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 16,927 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
This Bed We Made older $24.99 3,187 90% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) Lowbirth Games
Class of '09: The Re-Up older $14.99 4,496 97% 135k $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) SBN3
Tails Noir older $24.99 2,592 66% 78k $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) Eggnut
Duck Detective: The Secret Salami older $9.99 6,128 94% 184k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,562) Happy Broccoli Games
IMMORTALITY older $19.99 1,768 84% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,270) Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid
Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure older $15.99 2,158 91% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,193) DigiTales Interactive
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Duck Detective: The Ghost of Glamping $9.99 2,571 96% 77k $771k (exactly $770,529) Happy Broccoli Games
Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Clifftop Games
Confidential Killings - A Detective Game $14.99 716 76% 21k $322k (exactly $321,985) BRANE, Lorenzo Boni
Detective Instinct: Farewell, My Beloved $19.99 435 93% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) Armonica LLC
Radiolight $14.99 414 90% 12k $186k (exactly $186,176) Krystof Knesl
Mindcop $14.99 413 94% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Andre Gareis
Mind Diver $17.99 316 94% 9.5k $171k (exactly $170,545) Indoor Sunglasses
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.