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Should I ship a Noir Board Game?
Board Game + Noir
Only 9 developers shipped a Noir Board Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Moves Of The Diamond Hand, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $62k, ×133 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $446 (exactly $446) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $1,973) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,469) |
| Top 5% | $63k (exactly $62,968) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 25 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 250% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Board Game
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Board Game
- Price point
- $8.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 644 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Party-Based RPGFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Local Co-OpFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + HistoricalFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + SpaceFair
- + Alternate HistoryFair
- + MahjongFair
- + Party GameFair
- + DragonsFair
Comparable games
Moves Of The Diamond Hand 2026 · EA · $63k 
Divine's Howl 2025 · $51k 
WORLD OF ART JIGSAW PUZZLES 2020 · $46k 
Rough Justice: '84 2023 · $40k 
Cheater's Table 2026 · EA · $14k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Moves Of The Diamond Hand | · EA | $19.99 | 105 100% | 3.2k | $63k (exactly $62,968) | Cosmo D Studios |
| | Divine's Howl | $9.99 | 169 89% | 5.1k | $51k (exactly $50,649) | Sense13 Studio | |
| | WORLD OF ART JIGSAW PUZZLES | older | $10.99 | 139 92% | 4.2k | $46k (exactly $45,828) | NowakGames |
| | Rough Justice: '84 | older | $19.99 | 67 64% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $40,180) | Gamma Minus |
| | Cheater's Table | · EA | $6.99 | 69 95% | 2.1k | $14k (exactly $14,469) | Lagari |
 | Crime Reaper | older | $8.99 | 42 90% | 1.3k | $11k (exactly $11,327) | Potato Interactive |
 | Yesterday's News | $11.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) | Rooibos Games | |
 | Mystery Solitaire. Cthulhu Mythos 3 | older | $14.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $2.2k (exactly $2,248) | 8floor |
 | ENDSTATION | $2.99 | 22 95% | 660 | $2.0k (exactly $1,973) | bal_duin | |
 | Clou - Roll & Heist | · EA older | $5.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Boardgame Racoon e.K. |
 | Chalk & Blood | · EA | $8.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) | BoiraTech |
 | HEXADEL | $0.99 | 15 86% | 450 | $446 (exactly $446) | Planetary Gears | |
 | UNKNOWN FACES | · EA | $9.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Nerux Studio |
 | Gain Tiles Match: Trading Dilemma | $0.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | 铅傀儡之原工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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