Games › Adventure › Adventure + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Adventure game?
Adventure + Noir
Of 260 developers who shipped a Noir Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 500 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1356 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 500 games are announced against 151 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.7k (exactly $1,678) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,491) |
| Top 5% | $644k (exactly $643,970) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 260 |
| Released games | 818 |
| Announced | 500 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Investigation, Puzzle, Point & Click
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 58,387 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 133 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 500 games are announced against 151 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M 
Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M 
Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M 
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Mafia: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 88,955 86% | 2.7M | $107M (exactly $106,719,314) | Hangar 13 |
| | Max Payne 3 | older | $19.99 | 55,150 86% | 1.7M | $33M (exactly $33,073,455) | Rockstar Studios |
| | Mafia II: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,886 74% | 867k | $26M (exactly $25,988,734) | Hangar 13, D3T |
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
 | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | MOUSE: P.I. For Hire | $29.99 | 14,604 93% | 438k | $13M (exactly $13,139,219) | Fumi Games | |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Alice: Madness Returns | older | $9.99 | 27,795 90% | 834k | $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) | Spicy Horse Games |
 | The Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 9,700 96% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) | Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | The Drifter | $19.99 | 4,735 97% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) | Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd | |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Menace from the Deep | $16.99 | 2,466 84% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) | Flat Lab | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Duck Detective: The Ghost of Glamping | $9.99 | 2,571 96% | 77k | $771k (exactly $770,529) | Happy Broccoli Games | |
 | Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Clifftop Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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