Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir RPG?

RPG + Noir

Of 95 developers who shipped a Noir RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×385 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 184 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 184 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $3.3k → $839 → $14k → $1.7k → $7.2k → $1.5k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,697)
Top 5% $242k (exactly $242,019)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 240
Announced 184
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Immersive Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 19,917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M Shadows of Doubt 2024 · $11M Murdered: Soul Suspect 2014 · $7.2M Word Game 2022 · $6.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut older $39.99 118,124 92% 3.5M $142M (exactly $141,713,363) ZA/UM
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Murdered: Soul Suspect older $19.99 12,051 87% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) Airtight Games
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified older $19.99 4,857 67% 146k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) 2K Marin
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Class of '09: The Re-Up older $14.99 4,496 97% 135k $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) SBN3
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Crimson Oath $14.99 750 82% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Parry Frames Team
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Withering Realms · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Moonless Formless
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
Harem Fantasy $11.99 354 87% 11k $127k (exactly $127,334) Sweet Buns Games
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Where it all Began - Season 1 · EA $9.99 286 84% 8.6k $86k (exactly $85,714) OceanAVN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.