Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Combat game?

Combat + Noir

Of 46 developers who shipped a Noir Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $650k, ×1048 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 81 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $3.4k → $9.2k → $8.4k → $1.1k → $3.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,485)
Top 5% $658k (exactly $657,911)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 117
Announced 81
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Gore, Violent, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 20,027 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $650k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MOUSE: P.I. For Hire 2026 · $13M Alone in the Dark 2024 · $4.0M Intravenous 2021 · $1.7M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Better Than Dead 2026 · EA · $675k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Alone in the Dark older $39.99 3,325 77% 100k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,002) Pieces Interactive
Intravenous older $19.99 2,872 91% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,722,338) Explosive Squat Games
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Better Than Dead · EA $14.99 1,500 72% 45k $675k (exactly $674,550) MONTE GALLO
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
Fashion Police Squad older $19.99 872 90% 26k $523k (exactly $522,938) Mopeful Games
Gunbrella older $14.99 920 85% 28k $414k (exactly $413,724) doinksoft
LIBERATED older $19.99 679 77% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Atomic Wolf, L.INC
Crimson Oath $14.99 750 82% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Parry Frames Team
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Kusan: City of Wolves $14.99 295 89% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) CIRCLEfromDOT
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Kats Trigger · EA $8.99 440 88% 13k $119k (exactly $118,668) GIX
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.