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Should I ship a Noir Dynamic Narration game?
Dynamic Narration + Noir
Only 16 developers shipped a Noir Dynamic Narration game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Omen Exitio: Hunger, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $35k, ×74 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 37 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $330 (exactly $330) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) |
| Top 5% | $35k (exactly $35,065) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 37 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 600% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dynamic Narration
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Dynamic Narration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Choose Your Own Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Comic Book, Story Rich, Text-Based
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 336 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $330. 37 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dynamic Narration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsStrong odds
- + IncrementalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + ModernFair
- + TacticalFair
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + RoguelikePoor odds
- + RoguelitePoor odds
- + Word GamePoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + ManagementPoor odds
Comparable games
Heading Out 2024 · $383k 
Tesla Effect: A Tex Murphy Adventure 2014 · $377k 
Betrayal At Club Low 2022 · $161k 
The Journey Down: Chapter One 2013 · $150k 
A Case of Distrust 2018 · $137k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Heading Out | older | $19.99 | 639 74% | 19k | $383k (exactly $383,208) | Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas |
| | Tesla Effect: A Tex Murphy Adventure | older | $19.99 | 628 90% | 19k | $377k (exactly $376,612) | Big Finish Games |
| | Betrayal At Club Low | older | $9.99 | 538 97% | 16k | $161k (exactly $161,239) | Cosmo D Studios |
| | The Journey Down: Chapter One | older | $6.99 | 713 87% | 21k | $150k (exactly $149,516) | SkyGoblin |
| | A Case of Distrust | older | $14.99 | 305 86% | 9.2k | $137k (exactly $137,158) | An Open Ben |
 | The Franz Kafka Videogame | older | $6.99 | 649 63% | 19k | $136k (exactly $136,095) | Denis Galanin (mif2000) |
 | Thought Experiment Simulator | older | $4.99 | 620 81% | 19k | $93k (exactly $92,814) | HoHo Game Studio |
 | The Secret of Retropolis | older | $9.99 | 162 92% | 4.9k | $49k (exactly $48,551) | Peanut Button |
 | Ghost in the pool | older | $3.99 | 298 77% | 8.9k | $36k (exactly $35,671) | CASCHA GAMES |
 | Omen Exitio: Hunger | $9.99 | 117 88% | 3.5k | $35k (exactly $35,065) | Tiny Bull Studios | |
 | Hank: Drowning On Dry Land | $2.99 | 140 95% | 4.2k | $13k (exactly $12,558) | My Next Games | |
 | Empire of Vice : Chicago | · EA | $16.99 | 9 77% | 270 | $4.6k (exactly $4,587) | Artifex Parvus |
 | Octopus Goulash | $12.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) | Alessio Serenellini | |
 | Granite Noir: The Social Experiment | $9.99 | 12 66% | 360 | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) | Black Potion | |
 | REARVIEW MIRROR | $11.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $3.2k (exactly $3,237) | CUBUS GAMES SL | |
 | Trouble in Warsaw | $2.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $1.6k (exactly $1,615) | FrontBone | |
 | Judge SIM | $7.99 | 6 16% | 180 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | sunsistudios | |
 | CurrentDay | $2.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $1.1k (exactly $1,076) | HB Studio | |
 | Accident Investigator Simulator: Black Box | $10.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $989 (exactly $989) | Cottondream Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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