Do I ship it?

Games › Platformer › Platformer + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Platformer?

Platformer + Noir

Only 19 developers shipped a Noir Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, CYAN BRAIN, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $650k, ×1385 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 53 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 53 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.8k → $269 → $5.4k → $179 → $26k → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $658k (exactly $657,911)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 107
Announced 53
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 2D Platformer, Action, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,089 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $650k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Katana ZERO 2019 · $30M Alice: Madness Returns 2011 · $8.3M Deadlight 2012 · $4.2M Gunpoint 2013 · $3.1M DEADBOLT 2016 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Alice: Madness Returns older $9.99 27,795 90% 834k $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) Spicy Horse Games
Deadlight older $14.99 9,386 78% 282k $4.2M (exactly $4,220,884) Tequila Works, S.L.
Gunpoint older $9.99 10,276 97% 308k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,717) Suspicious Developments
DEADBOLT older $9.99 4,852 96% 146k $1.5M (exactly $1,454,144) Hopoo Games
Contrast older $9.99 4,548 90% 136k $1.4M (exactly $1,363,036) Compulsion Games
Genesis Noir older $14.99 1,694 79% 51k $762k (exactly $761,792) Feral Cat Den
FRAMED Collection older $9.99 2,336 94% 70k $700k (exactly $700,099) Loveshack Entertainment
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
Kats Trigger · EA $8.99 440 88% 13k $119k (exactly $118,668) GIX
Death Frame $14.99 57 98% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) EpiXR Games UG
KIYO - Bunny Tyranny $14.99 23 100% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Pixel Rats
血姬：双生 (Vampiress: Eternal Duet) $9.99 24 58% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) 织界者 (Realm Weaver Studio)
Project Chameleon $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Anonymous King
Street Cleaner 3 $15.99 8 100% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) Creaky Lantern Games
Cats Catching Mice: The Black and White World $4.99 23 95% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Demistar
Ropeman $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) 1K Project
GUN.DOG.REVENGE $4.00 18 100% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,160) MEWSTURBO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.