Do I ship it?

GamesWord GameWord Game + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Word Game?

Word Game + Noir

Only 19 developers shipped a Noir Word Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Séance of Blake Manor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×4650 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Word Game + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $6.5k → $1.4k → $9.0k → $2.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Word Game + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,432)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 45
Announced 26
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Word Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Anime, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Word Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  2. + TacticalFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  3. + Point & ClickFair60 devs · median $1.6k · 56 announced
  4. + LootFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 8 announced
  5. + AutomationFair12 devs · median $1.6k · 11 announced
  6. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  7. + DetectiveFair82 devs · median $1.3k · 90 announced
  8. + Procedural GenerationFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair18 devs · median $1.2k · 16 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair29 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  11. + IncrementalFair91 devs · median $1.2k · 77 announced
  12. + NatureFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 8 announced

All 98 pairs on the Word Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
DEATH NOTE Killer Within $9.99 2,324 84% 70k $697k (exactly $696,503) Grounding Inc.
Roman's Christmas / 罗曼圣诞探案集 older $10.99 1,395 95% 42k $460k (exactly $459,932) SelfCrop Studio
CaseCracker2 older $11.99 759 90% 23k $273k (exactly $273,012) BlackRobe
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
Traditional Chinese Medicine Simulator · EA older $14.99 304 96% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) 曲波
Neyasnoe older $9.99 439 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) sad3d, ИЛЬЯМАЗО
Word Game World $11.99 114 62% 3.4k $41k (exactly $41,006) Team9
I live under your house. older $1.99 305 80% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,208) SpoocleMacBoogle
How Much for the Body in the Freezer $1.99 225 92% 6.8k $13k (exactly $13,432) Renka
Mercury Elopement Syndrome $1.99 171 82% 5.1k $10k (exactly $10,209) Renka
Dingir OS $4.99 60 85% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) SpoocleMacBoogle
Detective Worden $4.99 54 85% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Domestic Black Cat
Yesterday's News $11.99 18 83% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Rooibos Games
Text Escape: Doomsday City $3.99 18 61% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,155) 齿轮游戏

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.