Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Co-op game?

Co-op + Noir

Only 11 developers shipped a Noir Co-op game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, In Sink: A Co-op Escape Adventure, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×430 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $227k → $0 → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,380)
Top 5% $644k (exactly $643,970)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 82% positive over 1,905 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Max Payne 3 older $19.99 55,150 86% 1.7M $33M (exactly $33,073,455) Rockstar Studios
In Sink: A Co-op Escape Adventure $14.99 1,432 86% 43k $644k (exactly $643,970) Clock Out Games
Hellbreach: Vegas older $14.99 504 74% 15k $227k (exactly $226,649) Infinity Ape Studios
Midnight Murder Club $9.99 304 71% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Velan Studios
Floor44 older $9.99 126 70% 3.8k $38k (exactly $37,762) Glen Games
Antioch: Scarlet Bay older $4.99 220 78% 6.6k $33k (exactly $32,934) Midnight Mood Studio
Signal Ops older $9.99 81 69% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
DeTechtive 2112 $10.99 60 46% 1.8k $20k (exactly $19,782) M11 Studio
Killer in the cabin older $6.99 46 80% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Games People Play
Hellwatch $9.99 27 44% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FG
RAZE $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) RAZE CLUB
Light of the Eternal Night $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Deva
信任崩塌(Trust collapse) $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) b站@把竹节虫当折耳根吃了
Tab + Notch · EA $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HATCHgames
Hentai Senpai: Noir Vice $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Kink Master Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.