Should I ship a Noir PvP game?
PvP + Noir
Only 16 developers shipped a Noir PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DEATH NOTE Killer Within, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×465 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 36 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,887) |
| Top 25% | $91k (exactly $91,109) |
| Top 5% | $697k (exactly $696,503) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 36 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 36%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,105 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
DEATH NOTE Killer Within 2024 · $697k 
Hell is Others 2022 · $446k 
Final Sentence 2026 · $328k 
HOTEL BARCELONA 2025 · $242k 
Midnight Murder Club 2025 · $91k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DEATH NOTE Killer Within | $9.99 | 2,324 84% | 70k | $697k (exactly $696,503) | Grounding Inc. | |
| | Hell is Others | older | $14.99 | 991 73% | 30k | $446k (exactly $445,653) | Strelka Games, Yonder |
| | Final Sentence | $9.99 | 1,095 84% | 33k | $328k (exactly $328,172) | Button Mash | |
| | HOTEL BARCELONA | $29.99 | 269 71% | 8.1k | $242k (exactly $242,019) | White Owls Inc. | |
| | Midnight Murder Club | $9.99 | 304 71% | 9.1k | $91k (exactly $91,109) | Velan Studios | |
 | Revenge of the Boxer: Moscow Criminality | older | $4.99 | 166 90% | 5.0k | $25k (exactly $24,850) | Alligator Friends Software |
 | Cheater's Table | · EA | $6.99 | 69 95% | 2.1k | $14k (exactly $14,469) | Lagari |
 | Killer in the cabin | older | $6.99 | 46 80% | 1.4k | $9.6k (exactly $9,646) | Games People Play |
 | Yesterday's News | $11.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) | Rooibos Games | |
 | Street Heat | older | $7.99 | 17 58% | 510 | $4.1k (exactly $4,075) | Astalo Games |
 | Pinball with a Gun | $7.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) | Tigpan, PoggieB | |
 | Smoke Town | $6.99 | 9 100% | 270 | $1.9k (exactly $1,887) | TSRV | |
 | Wrestling Classics: Olde Timey Pro Wrestling | $3.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $598 (exactly $598) | LunarCore Games | |
 | UNKNOWN FACES | · EA | $9.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Nerux Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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