Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Action game?

Action + Noir

Of 129 developers who shipped a Noir Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 294 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×537 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 294 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 294 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 129
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.6k → $3.5k → $5.4k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $748 (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 129
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,390)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,275)
Developers, 2 yr 129
Released games 433
Announced 294
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 44,557 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 294 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M Katana ZERO 2019 · $30M Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
Max Payne 3 older $19.99 55,150 86% 1.7M $33M (exactly $33,073,455) Rockstar Studios
Katana ZERO older $14.99 66,341 97% 2.0M $30M (exactly $29,833,548) Askiisoft
Mafia II: Definitive Edition older $29.99 28,886 74% 867k $26M (exactly $25,988,734) Hangar 13, D3T
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Skullgirls 2nd Encore older $24.99 23,071 88% 692k $17M (exactly $17,296,329) Hidden Variable Studios
The Wolf Among Us older $14.99 32,494 97% 975k $15M (exactly $14,612,552) Telltale
MOUSE: P.I. For Hire $29.99 14,604 93% 438k $13M (exactly $13,139,219) Fumi Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Alice: Madness Returns older $9.99 27,795 90% 834k $8.3M (exactly $8,330,162) Spicy Horse Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Better Than Dead · EA $14.99 1,500 72% 45k $675k (exactly $674,550) MONTE GALLO
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
Crimson Oath $14.99 750 82% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Parry Frames Team
Synthwave Burnout $12.99 751 74% 23k $293k (exactly $292,665) Whale Rock Games
Deliver At All Costs $29.99 320 73% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) Studio Far Out Games
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.