Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Noir
Only 16 developers shipped a Noir Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Harem Fantasy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $540. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 18 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,209) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $35,251) |
| Top 5% | $127k (exactly $127,334) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 18 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Dating Sim
- Price point
- $5.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,192 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
Class of '09: The Re-Up 2023 · $2.0M 
BUSTAFELLOWS 2021 · $1.2M 
Harem Fantasy 2026 · $127k 
Where it all Began - Season 1 2025 · EA · $86k 
FURRY SEX: Cabaret 💋🔞 2021 · $63k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Class of '09: The Re-Up | older | $14.99 | 4,496 97% | 135k | $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) | SBN3 |
| | BUSTAFELLOWS | older | $39.99 | 968 86% | 29k | $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) | NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC. |
| | Harem Fantasy | $11.99 | 354 87% | 11k | $127k (exactly $127,334) | Sweet Buns Games | |
| | Where it all Began - Season 1 | · EA | $9.99 | 286 84% | 8.6k | $86k (exactly $85,714) | OceanAVN |
| | FURRY SEX: Cabaret 💋🔞 | older | $6.99 | 299 71% | 9.0k | $63k (exactly $62,700) | Furry Tails |
 | Word Game World | $11.99 | 114 62% | 3.4k | $41k (exactly $41,006) | Team9 | |
 | Lover's Enigma | $11.99 | 98 87% | 2.9k | $35k (exactly $35,251) | FallenCranberry Studio | |
 | Love Shore | older | $14.99 | 59 67% | 1.8k | $27k (exactly $26,532) | Perfect Garbage |
 | Furry Sex: Poker 🃏♥️ | older | $6.99 | 97 74% | 2.9k | $20k (exactly $20,341) | Furry Tails |
 | One Eleven | older | $7.99 | 81 76% | 2.4k | $19k (exactly $19,416) | Kitten Purradise Studios |
 | Ambitious Road | $17.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $14k (exactly $14,032) | 黒木道仁 | |
 | Apartment Story | $7.00 | 55 94% | 1.7k | $12k (exactly $11,550) | Blue Rider Interactive | |
 | Weirdo | $10.99 | 32 87% | 960 | $11k (exactly $10,550) | CASCHA GAMES | |
 | Mercury Elopement Syndrome | $1.99 | 171 82% | 5.1k | $10k (exactly $10,209) | Renka | |
 | 迷雾岛屿：9号万能试剂 | $3.99 | 26 96% | 780 | $3.1k (exactly $3,112) | Bio.no.187 | |
 | A Night With Angel | $2.99 | 30 86% | 900 | $2.7k (exactly $2,691) | The Poundry |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.