Should I ship a Noir game?
Noir
Of 478 developers who shipped a Noir game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 900 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 900 games are announced against 301 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,058) |
| Top 5% | $337k (exactly $337,275) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 478 |
| Released games | 1,384 |
| Announced | 900 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 72,464 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 228 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 900 games are announced against 301 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
All pairs with Noir
No pair with Noir has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M 
Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M 
Katana ZERO 2019 · $30M 
Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Mafia: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 88,955 86% | 2.7M | $107M (exactly $106,719,314) | Hangar 13 |
| | Max Payne 3 | older | $19.99 | 55,150 86% | 1.7M | $33M (exactly $33,073,455) | Rockstar Studios |
| | Katana ZERO | older | $14.99 | 66,341 97% | 2.0M | $30M (exactly $29,833,548) | Askiisoft |
| | Mafia II: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,886 74% | 867k | $26M (exactly $25,988,734) | Hangar 13, D3T |
 | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
 | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | Skullgirls 2nd Encore | older | $24.99 | 23,071 88% | 692k | $17M (exactly $17,296,329) | Hidden Variable Studios |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | MOUSE: P.I. For Hire | $29.99 | 14,604 93% | 438k | $13M (exactly $13,139,219) | Fumi Games | |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | The Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 9,700 96% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) | Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | The Drifter | $19.99 | 4,735 97% | 142k | $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) | Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd | |
 | Psycho Patrol R | · EA | $39.99 | 2,090 88% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) | Consumer Softproducts |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Slots & Daggers | $7.99 | 7,421 93% | 223k | $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) | Friedemann |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.