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Should I ship a Noir Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Choose Your Own Adventure + Noir
Of 81 developers who shipped a Noir Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 119 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $7.5k (exactly $7,547) |
| Top 5% | $97k (exactly $97,168) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 81 |
| Released games | 192 |
| Announced | 119 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, Adventure, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 6,492 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + FMVFair
- + FlightFair
- + SportsFair
- + Word GameFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + 3D FighterLong shot
- + NavalPoor odds
Comparable games
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
Batman - The Telltale Series 2016 · $6.8M 
Word Game 2022 · $6.2M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
This Bed We Made 2023 · $2.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | Batman - The Telltale Series | older | $14.99 | 15,060 87% | 452k | $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) | Telltale |
| | Word Game | older | $34.99 | 5,930 93% | 178k | $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) | Team9 |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | This Bed We Made | older | $24.99 | 3,187 90% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) | Lowbirth Games |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | Class of '09: The Re-Up | older | $14.99 | 4,496 97% | 135k | $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) | SBN3 |
 | IMMORTALITY | older | $19.99 | 1,768 84% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,060,270) | Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid |
 | Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure | older | $15.99 | 2,158 91% | 65k | $1.0M (exactly $1,035,193) | DigiTales Interactive |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Confidential Killings - A Detective Game | $14.99 | 716 76% | 21k | $322k (exactly $321,985) | BRANE, Lorenzo Boni | |
 | Harem Fantasy | $11.99 | 354 87% | 11k | $127k (exactly $127,334) | Sweet Buns Games | |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | 文字遊戯(日本語版) | $34.99 | 74 90% | 2.2k | $78k (exactly $77,678) | Team9, ESQUADRA,inc. | |
 | Lover's Enigma | $11.99 | 98 87% | 2.9k | $35k (exactly $35,251) | FallenCranberry Studio | |
 | Omen Exitio: Hunger | $9.99 | 117 88% | 3.5k | $35k (exactly $35,065) | Tiny Bull Studios | |
 | Mycopsychosys: Remastered | $4.99 | 231 97% | 6.9k | $35k (exactly $34,581) | DeltaCat Studio | |
 | The Allure Of Wanton Cove | $9.99 | 114 78% | 3.4k | $34k (exactly $34,166) | Ktulhu Solutions, Aftermath |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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