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Should I ship a Noir Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Noir
Of 100 developers who shipped a Noir Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 273 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×699 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 273 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) |
| Top 5% | $332k (exactly $332,234) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 100 |
| Released games | 267 |
| Announced | 273 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 215% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 10,745 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 273 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
Batman - The Telltale Series 2016 · $6.8M 
Nobody Wants to Die 2024 · $4.4M 
This Is the Police 2016 · $4.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | Batman - The Telltale Series | older | $14.99 | 15,060 87% | 452k | $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) | Telltale |
| | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
| | This Is the Police | older | $14.99 | 9,153 82% | 275k | $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) | Weappy Studio |
 | Blacksad: Under the Skin | older | $19.99 | 5,356 83% | 161k | $3.2M (exactly $3,211,993) | Pendulo Studios, YS Interactive |
 | This Is the Police 2 | older | $14.99 | 5,330 77% | 160k | $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) | Weappy Studio |
 | This Bed We Made | older | $24.99 | 3,187 90% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) | Lowbirth Games |
 | Hollywood Animal | · EA | $19.99 | 3,845 73% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) | Weappy Wholesome |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | The Darkest Files | $19.99 | 668 95% | 20k | $401k (exactly $400,600) | Paintbucket Games | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
 | Mindcop | $14.99 | 413 94% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Andre Gareis | |
 | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios | |
 | Lightracer: For Judge | $9.99 | 462 92% | 14k | $138k (exactly $138,461) | Smartmelon Games | |
 | Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE | $29.99 | 108 94% | 3.2k | $97k (exactly $97,168) | NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator | $12.99 | 208 59% | 6.2k | $81k (exactly $81,058) | Zeitglas |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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