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Should I ship a Noir Tactical RPG?
Tactical RPG + Noir
Only 12 developers shipped a Noir Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Aether & Iron, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×622 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.5k (exactly $4,497) |
| Top 25% | $39k (exactly $39,398) |
| Top 5% | $391k (exactly $390,594) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 24 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tactical RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 878 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + Space SimFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
The Lamplighters League 2023 · $1.1M 
Aether & Iron 2026 · $391k 
For the People 2020 · $372k 
Vigilantes 2018 · $124k 
Shana - Priestess of Tona 2025 · $57k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Lamplighters League | older | $49.99 | 726 71% | 22k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) | Harebrained Schemes |
| | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
| | For the People | older | $16.99 | 729 73% | 22k | $372k (exactly $371,571) | Brezg Studio |
| | Vigilantes | older | $14.99 | 276 80% | 8.3k | $124k (exactly $124,117) | Timeslip Softworks |
| | Shana - Priestess of Tona | $9.99 | 190 74% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,943) | Lustration Team | |
 | Cyber Ops | older | $14.99 | 108 42% | 3.2k | $49k (exactly $48,568) | Octeto Studios |
 | Neon Blood | $17.99 | 73 60% | 2.2k | $39k (exactly $39,398) | ChaoticBrain Studios | |
 | Ambitious Road | $17.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $14k (exactly $14,032) | 黒木道仁 | |
 | Augmented Empire | $7.99 | 25 88% | 750 | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) | Coatsink | |
 | Shadow Vault | older | $9.99 | 17 76% | 510 | $5.1k (exactly $5,095) | Mayhem Studios, ZOOM Platform Media, Jo… (Mayhem Studios, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group) |
 | Downward Spear | · EA | $14.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $4.5k (exactly $4,497) | imakegame software |
 | HeroInc | · EA | $8.99 | 10 90% | 300 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | Nue Games |
 | Idle Hero Siege | $3.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) | 光鸽 | |
 | Meridian | $9.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Turn Based Hedgehog | |
 | Miryam: The Polluted Land | $4.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | 6.5F Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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