Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Sandbox?
Sandbox + Noir
Only 15 developers shipped a Noir Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shadows of Doubt, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×17484 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
| Top 25% | $170k (exactly $169,715) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 34 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Action, Procedural Generation
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 23,165 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Shadows of Doubt 2024 · $11M 
The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M 
Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M 
City of Gangsters 2021 · $1.2M 
Dystopika 2024 · $716k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
| | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
| | Empire of Sin | older | $39.99 | 4,544 49% | 136k | $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) | Romero Games |
| | City of Gangsters | older | $29.99 | 1,332 73% | 40k | $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) | SomaSim |
| | Dystopika | older | $6.99 | 3,413 95% | 102k | $716k (exactly $715,706) | Voids Within |
 | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
 | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios | |
 | Neyasnoe | older | $9.99 | 439 93% | 13k | $132k (exactly $131,568) | sad3d, ИЛЬЯМАЗО |
 | CyberTaxi | older | $9.99 | 178 64% | 5.3k | $53k (exactly $53,347) | Projects from Basement |
 | Coffee Noir - Business Detective Game | older | $8.99 | 72 65% | 2.2k | $19k (exactly $19,418) | DOJI, NAOS Software, Darkpowder |
 | Grand Cru: The Wine Maker | $14.99 | 37 86% | 1.1k | $17k (exactly $16,639) | hAi Corp | |
 | Virago World | $9.99 | 14 71% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Honest Chronicle | |
 | One Way Mirror: AI | · EA | $14.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) | Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sh… (Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sheep) |
 | Housekeeper: Anomaly | $5.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) | Alex Grim | |
 | Sipssassin | $9.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | Simmering Studios | |
 | Detective Turtletop: Who Killed Harambe? | $14.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $450 (exactly $450) | Turtletop Software |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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