Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Noir
Of 120 developers who shipped a Noir Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 194 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×699 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 194 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,612) |
| Top 25% | $8.1k (exactly $8,084) |
| Top 5% | $332k (exactly $332,234) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 120 |
| Released games | 330 |
| Announced | 194 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Investigation
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 8,575 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 194 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
Batman - The Telltale Series 2016 · $6.8M 
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
Soul Hackers 2 2022 · $4.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | Batman - The Telltale Series | older | $14.99 | 15,060 87% | 452k | $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) | Telltale |
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | Soul Hackers 2 | older | $59.99 | 2,300 65% | 69k | $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) | ATLUS |
 | This Is the Police | older | $14.99 | 9,153 82% | 275k | $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) | Weappy Studio |
 | Tangle Tower | older | $19.99 | 6,483 94% | 194k | $3.9M (exactly $3,887,855) | SFB Games |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | Class of '09: The Re-Up | older | $14.99 | 4,496 97% | 135k | $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) | SBN3 |
 | Tails Noir | older | $24.99 | 2,592 66% | 78k | $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) | Eggnut |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | LumineNight | $24.99 | 515 87% | 15k | $386k (exactly $386,096) | Spickasoft | |
 | The Shell Part III: Paradiso | $19.99 | 622 96% | 19k | $373k (exactly $373,013) | Innocent Grey | |
 | The Posthumous Investigation | $19.99 | 554 94% | 17k | $332k (exactly $332,234) | Mother Gaia Studio | |
 | Detective Instinct: Farewell, My Beloved | $19.99 | 435 93% | 13k | $261k (exactly $260,869) | Armonica LLC | |
 | Chicken Police: Into the HIVE! | $19.99 | 374 80% | 11k | $224k (exactly $224,288) | The Wild Gentlemen | |
 | Lightracer: For Judge | $9.99 | 462 92% | 14k | $138k (exactly $138,461) | Smartmelon Games | |
 | Harem Fantasy | $11.99 | 354 87% | 11k | $127k (exactly $127,334) | Sweet Buns Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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