Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Time › Bullet Time + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Bullet Time game?

Bullet Time + Noir

Only 11 developers shipped a Noir Bullet Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Better Than Dead, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Time + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $111k → $3.6k → $268k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Time + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,058)
Top 5% $675k (exactly $674,550)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 31
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Time
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 2,184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Time with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LogicFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair30 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  3. + LootFair15 devs · median $836 · 21 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair13 devs · median $718 · 8 announced
  5. + StrategyFair60 devs · median $599 · 59 announced
  6. + Tower DefenseFair20 devs · median $597 · 20 announced
  7. + Quick-Time EventsLong shot10 devs · median $390 · 15 announced
  8. + On-Rails ShooterLong shot8 devs · median $359 · 8 announced
  9. + DystopianPoor odds13 devs · median $44k · 39 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $5.4k · 30 announced
  11. + Beat 'em upPoor odds11 devs · median $4.7k · 19 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 22 announced

All 95 pairs on the Bullet Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M Max Payne 2011 · $3.8M Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne 2008 · $3.6M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Better Than Dead 2026 · EA · $675k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Max Payne 3 older $19.99 55,150 86% 1.7M $33M (exactly $33,073,455) Rockstar Studios
Max Payne older $9.99 12,773 88% 383k $3.8M (exactly $3,828,068) Remedy Entertainment
Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne older $9.99 12,102 93% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,626,969) Remedy Entertainment
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Better Than Dead · EA $14.99 1,500 72% 45k $675k (exactly $674,550) MONTE GALLO
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
Soundodger 2 older $19.99 185 95% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Studio Bean
Lithium City older $7.99 286 92% 8.6k $69k (exactly $68,554) Nico Tuason
Mr. Fast older $4.99 105 79% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,718) ZHANG FAN
Happy Monster · EA $8.99 41 82% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) Destined Game Studio
Bullet Noir $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) WOLCEN Studio
AI Games $59.99 2 50% 60 $3.6k (exactly $3,599) SUNYU Games
Dark Erosion: Endless Siege $6.99 15 80% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) LaoLiang
The Void Project $4.99 9 77% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Silver Demon Studios
SCP: Pale Weaver $5.99 4 0% 120 $719 (exactly $719) why so serious?
Kleopatra $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) AliRei Dream ProjeKt
Protocol : Kill Switch $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Tiny TIm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.