Games › Open World › Open World + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Open World game?
Open World + Noir
Only 19 developers shipped a Noir Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shadows of Doubt, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×4.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×7330 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 46 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.6k (exactly $6,594) |
| Top 25% | $170k (exactly $169,715) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 65 |
| Announced | 46 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Sandbox, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 25,719 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Mafia: Definitive Edition 2020 · $107M 
Max Payne 3 2012 · $33M 
Mafia II: Definitive Edition 2020 · $26M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Mafia: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 88,955 86% | 2.7M | $107M (exactly $106,719,314) | Hangar 13 |
| | Max Payne 3 | older | $19.99 | 55,150 86% | 1.7M | $33M (exactly $33,073,455) | Rockstar Studios |
| | Mafia II: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,886 74% | 867k | $26M (exactly $25,988,734) | Hangar 13, D3T |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Murdered: Soul Suspect | older | $19.99 | 12,051 87% | 362k | $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) | Airtight Games |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | The Bureau: XCOM Declassified | older | $19.99 | 4,857 67% | 146k | $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) | 2K Marin |
 | Psycho Patrol R | · EA | $39.99 | 2,090 88% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) | Consumer Softproducts |
 | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
 | Vaudeville | $19.99 | 283 48% | 8.5k | $170k (exactly $169,715) | Bumblebee Studios | |
 | Glitchpunk | $19.99 | 174 47% | 5.2k | $104k (exactly $104,348) | Dark Lord | |
 | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | Serra de Deus | $4.99 | 85 94% | 2.6k | $13k (exactly $12,724) | David Pateti | |
 | A Death in the Red Light | $9.99 | 38 73% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | Mystery City Games BV | |
 | The Midnight Crimes | $10.99 | 20 60% | 600 | $6.6k (exactly $6,594) | DeadlyCrow Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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