Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Noir

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Noir Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Noir

Of 23 developers who shipped a Noir Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $86k, ×138 the market median. Revenue is up 390% on the market; 49 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 390% on the market, 49 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Noir
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $538 → $2.5k → $1.7k → $11k → $299 (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Noir: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,032)
Top 5% $87k (exactly $86,513)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 49
Announced 49
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 390% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Noir
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Card Battler
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,331 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $86k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M This Is the Police 2 2018 · $2.4M City of Gangsters 2021 · $1.2M The Lamplighters League 2023 · $1.1M The Shrouded Isle 2017 · $454k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
The Lamplighters League older $49.99 726 71% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) Harebrained Schemes
The Shrouded Isle older $12.99 1,166 71% 35k $454k (exactly $454,390) Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau,… (Jongwoo Kim, Erica Lahaie, FX Bilodeau, Tanya Short)
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
Labyrinth of Zangetsu older $29.99 70 70% 2.1k $63k (exactly $62,979) ACQUIRE Corp., KaeruPanda Inc.
Divine's Howl $9.99 169 89% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Sense13 Studio
Grand Cru: The Wine Maker $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) hAi Corp
Ambitious Road $17.99 26 88% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) 黒木道仁
Noir Lords · EA $7.99 51 96% 1.5k $12k (exactly $12,225) Speed Trail Games
DarkRanger $6.99 51 66% 1.5k $11k (exactly $10,695) 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅
Augmented Empire $7.99 25 88% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Coatsink
Battle Of The Abyss $4.99 33 93% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) 1029studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.