Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Noir
Should I ship a Noir Turn-Based Tactics?
Turn-Based Tactics + Noir
Only 17 developers shipped a Noir Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Aether & Iron, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×622 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $446 (exactly $446) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,032) |
| Top 5% | $391k (exactly $390,594) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 50 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Tactics
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Noir
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,118 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + TanksFair
- + AutomationFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DiceFair
- + MiningFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + PlatformerLong shot
Comparable games
Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M 
This Is the Police 2 2018 · $2.4M 
Aether & Iron 2026 · $391k 
Vigilantes 2018 · $124k 
Exorcism Agency 2025 · $87k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Empire of Sin | older | $39.99 | 4,544 49% | 136k | $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) | Romero Games |
| | This Is the Police 2 | older | $14.99 | 5,330 77% | 160k | $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) | Weappy Studio |
| | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
| | Vigilantes | older | $14.99 | 276 80% | 8.3k | $124k (exactly $124,117) | Timeslip Softworks |
| | Exorcism Agency | $12.99 | 222 91% | 6.7k | $87k (exactly $86,513) | YINGGUO GAME | |
 | Labyrinth of Zangetsu | older | $29.99 | 70 70% | 2.1k | $63k (exactly $62,979) | ACQUIRE Corp., KaeruPanda Inc. |
 | Shana - Priestess of Tona | $9.99 | 190 74% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,943) | Lustration Team | |
 | Dance of Cards | older | $9.99 | 93 88% | 2.8k | $28k (exactly $27,872) | GoodMorningMrFrog |
 | Grand Cru: The Wine Maker | $14.99 | 37 86% | 1.1k | $17k (exactly $16,639) | hAi Corp | |
 | Ambitious Road | $17.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $14k (exactly $14,032) | 黒木道仁 | |
 | DarkRanger | $6.99 | 51 66% | 1.5k | $11k (exactly $10,695) | 铅笔龙, 偶尔不帅 | |
 | moonchrome. | $10.99 | 22 95% | 660 | $7.3k (exactly $7,253) | upa=宇羽 | |
 | Augmented Empire | $7.99 | 25 88% | 750 | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) | Coatsink | |
 | 蚀界档案 | $9.99 | 10 80% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | 深圳市创源互娱科技有限公司 | |
 | Idle Hero Siege | $3.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) | 光鸽 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.