Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter

Of 844 developers who shipped a Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,779 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 1,779 games are announced against 454 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,779 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 844
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.0k → $713 → $980 → $1.2k → $839 → $599 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 844
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,880)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534)
Developers, 2 yr 844
Released games 3,083
Announced 1,779
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,256,219 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $750, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 529 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,779 games are announced against 454 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Third-Person Shooter

46 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Third-Person Shooter + Western Fair $1.4k 15 devs
  2. Third-Person Shooter + Dinosaurs Poor odds $9.0k 8 devs
  3. Third-Person Shooter + Mechs Poor odds $7.2k 38 devs
  4. Third-Person Shooter + Alternate History Poor odds $6.9k 12 devs
  5. Third-Person Shooter + Lovecraftian Poor odds $5.1k 11 devs
  6. Third-Person Shooter + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.2k 112 devs
  7. Third-Person Shooter + World War II Poor odds $3.9k 12 devs
  8. Third-Person Shooter + Mythology Poor odds $3.6k 13 devs
  9. Third-Person Shooter + Psychological Horror Poor odds $3.4k 60 devs
  10. Third-Person Shooter + Psychological Poor odds $2.7k 15 devs
  11. Third-Person Shooter + Horror Poor odds $2.1k 148 devs
  12. Third-Person Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.8k 127 devs
  13. Third-Person Shooter + Crime Poor odds $1.8k 19 devs
  14. Third-Person Shooter + Thriller Poor odds $1.6k 42 devs
  15. Third-Person Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.4k 53 devs
  16. Third-Person Shooter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 25 devs
  17. Third-Person Shooter + Modern Poor odds $1.3k 24 devs
  18. Third-Person Shooter + Zombies Poor odds $1.3k 156 devs
  19. Third-Person Shooter + Supernatural Poor odds $898 27 devs
  20. Third-Person Shooter + Medieval Poor odds $839 25 devs
  21. Third-Person Shooter + Robots Poor odds $629 72 devs
  22. Third-Person Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $600 200 devs
  23. Third-Person Shooter + Futuristic Poor odds $599 112 devs
  24. Third-Person Shooter + War Poor odds $599 72 devs
  25. Third-Person Shooter + Mystery Poor odds $599 51 devs
  26. Third-Person Shooter + Aliens Poor odds $599 49 devs
  27. Third-Person Shooter + Demons Poor odds $599 26 devs
  28. Third-Person Shooter + Historical Poor odds $599 13 devs
  29. Third-Person Shooter + Pirates Poor odds $599 10 devs
  30. Third-Person Shooter + Space Poor odds $597 70 devs
  31. Third-Person Shooter + Detective Poor odds $449 9 devs
  32. Third-Person Shooter + Military Poor odds $419 92 devs
  33. Third-Person Shooter + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $359 23 devs
  34. Third-Person Shooter + Fantasy Poor odds $358 99 devs
  35. Third-Person Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $358 39 devs
  36. Third-Person Shooter + Heist Poor odds $119 8 devs
  37. Third-Person Shooter + Capitalism Dead $139k 6 devs
  38. Third-Person Shooter + Cold War Dead $20k 6 devs
  39. Third-Person Shooter + LGBTQ+ Dead $8.2k 6 devs
  40. Third-Person Shooter + Noir Dead $6.7k 9 devs
  41. Third-Person Shooter + Assassins Dead $1.6k 12 devs
  42. Third-Person Shooter + Naval Dead $807 7 devs
  43. Third-Person Shooter + Conspiracy Dead $599 9 devs
  44. Third-Person Shooter + Magic Dead $300 39 devs
  45. Third-Person Shooter + Superhero Dead $299 3 devs
  46. Third-Person Shooter + Nature Dead $179 37 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B Palworld 2026 · $371M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Resident Evil 4 older $39.99 186,701 97% 5.6M $224M (exactly $223,985,190) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.