Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Cyberpunk

Of 53 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 156 more are announced, ×6.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×193 the market median. Revenue is up 1460% on the market; 156 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1460% on the market, 156 announced, ×6.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $899 → $657 → $748 → $300 → $7.5k → $7.3k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,445)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,497)
Top 5% $289k (exactly $288,804)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 186
Announced 156
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1460% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,685 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 156 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
DAEMON X MACHINA older $49.99 6,172 85% 185k $9.3M (exactly $9,256,148) Marvelous Inc.
Vanquish older $19.99 6,974 89% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,182,308) PlatinumGames, Little Stone Software
Agents of Mayhem older $29.99 3,270 59% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,942,019) Deep Silver Volition
Binary Domain older $14.99 3,567 86% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,604,080) Devil's Details
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
KIBORG $24.99 1,221 84% 37k $915k (exactly $915,384) Sobaka Studio
Hollowbody older $16.99 1,467 84% 44k $748k (exactly $747,730) Headware Games
Gungrave G.O.R.E older $29.99 744 71% 22k $669k (exactly $669,377) Iggymob Co.,Ltd
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.
Bounty Brawl: Most Wanted $15.99 138 84% 4.1k $66k (exactly $66,199) Nanuq
Cyberpunk SFX $9.99 183 83% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Whale Rock Games
NIGHT STRIKER GEAR $18.99 94 88% 2.8k $54k (exactly $53,552) M2 Co., Ltd., M2 Co.,LTD
Fear Effect $9.99 96 78% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Implicit Conversions
Ultra Mega Cats · EA $11.99 70 74% 2.1k $25k (exactly $25,179) Fallen Leaf, Unseen Silence, Black Drak… (Fallen Leaf, Unseen Silence, Black Drakkar Games)
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.