Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Historical

Only 13 developers shipped a Historical Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mafia: The Old Country, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $898 → $599 → $2.7k → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $31M (exactly $31,357,227)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 76
Announced 31
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 29,579 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $31M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mafia: The Old Country 2025 · $31M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M Mafia 2002 · $4.0M Over The Top: WWI 2026 · $3.8M Dino D-Day 2011 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Mafia older $14.99 8,896 90% 267k $4.0M (exactly $4,000,531) Illusion Softworks
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Dino D-Day older $9.99 8,039 86% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) 800 North and Digital Ranch
Military Conflict: Vietnam · EA older $14.99 2,035 91% 61k $915k (exactly $915,140) Dustfade
The Saboteur™ older $9.99 2,790 91% 84k $836k (exactly $836,163) Pandemic Studios
Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway™ older $9.99 2,306 90% 69k $691k (exactly $691,108) Gearbox Software
Battle Cry of Freedom older $10.00 2,092 71% 63k $628k (exactly $627,600) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Yasuke Simulator $6.99 1,925 97% 58k $404k (exactly $403,672) HistoryAccurateDevelopers
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games
Bonk It! $4.99 18 88% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Slotherin
The Odyssey Simulator $6.99 12 83% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) HistoryAccurateDevelopers
Temporal Gunslinger $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Ledan's Gift
Furball Over the Front $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Page Blue House
Vivere Retro $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) Vidas Salavejus
Sky Combat: WWII Warplane Races · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.