Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Magic

Of 39 developers who shipped a Magic Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 20 developers shipped in the last year and 84 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 84 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $1.2k → $59 → $450 → $2.4k → $300 → $150 (still earning) → $59 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 112
Announced 84
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 24,201 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M Little Witch Nobeta 2022 · $7.0M Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap 2025 · $3.6M SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream 2024 · $3.6M Orcs Must Die! 2011 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Little Witch Nobeta older $24.99 9,362 84% 281k $7.0M (exactly $7,018,691) Pupuya Games
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
Orcs Must Die! older $9.99 6,663 95% 200k $2.0M (exactly $1,996,901) Robot Entertainment
BLACK CLOVER: QUARTET KNIGHTS older $49.99 832 75% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,247,750) ILINX, Inc.
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
Bullet Witch older $14.99 723 70% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Marvelous, Inc.
Fictorum older $9.99 1,034 78% 31k $310k (exactly $309,890) Scraping Bottom Games
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Touhou Iyuushou ~ What the Bullet Hell?! $9.99 36 100% 1.1k $11k (exactly $10,789) Cyoltose, 雨夜枫雪制作组 , 雾雨威Channel, 神心飘游堂,… (Cyoltose, 雨夜枫雪制作组 , 雾雨威Channel, 神心飘游堂, 阐幽赜书房)
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
Vesperia Bononia $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Power Up Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.