Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Dinosaurs

Only 8 developers shipped a Dinosaur Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Clawed, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×292 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 14 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 25% $284k (exactly $283,816)
Top 5% $437k (exactly $437,181)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 31
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 50,481 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  10. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Exoprimal older $59.99 2,581 76% 77k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,026) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dino D-Day older $9.99 8,039 86% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) 800 North and Digital Ranch
Tomb Raider: Anniversary older $8.99 6,644 81% 199k $1.8M (exactly $1,791,887) Crystal Dynamics
Tomb Raider I (1996) older $6.99 4,039 85% 121k $847k (exactly $846,978) Core Design
Primal Carnage older $4.99 4,776 77% 143k $715k (exactly $714,967) Lukewarm Media
ORION: Prelude older $0.99 19,038 77% 571k $565k (exactly $565,429) DANKIE
Clawed $19.99 729 52% 22k $437k (exactly $437,181) Flatrock Games
Dino Crisis $9.99 947 80% 28k $284k (exactly $283,816) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Dino Crisis 2 $9.99 709 87% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Guardians of Orion (Phase 2) older $0.99 2,979 53% 89k $88k (exactly $88,476) DANKIE
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
Primeval Genesis · EA $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) After Hours Digital
DinoGORE $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) David Mills
Mega Mash Mons · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Dotosy
Dinosaur Hunting Simulator · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.