Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Fantasy

Of 99 developers who shipped a Fantasy Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 197 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 197 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $1.2k → $657 → $1.1k → $987 → $599 → $148 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $774k (exactly $773,613)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 319
Announced 197
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 30,684 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
ELEX older $29.99 12,443 72% 373k $11M (exactly $11,194,967) Piranha Bytes
Orcs Must Die! 3 older $29.99 10,930 85% 328k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,721) Robot Entertainment
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Little Witch Nobeta older $24.99 9,362 84% 281k $7.0M (exactly $7,018,691) Pupuya Games
Orcs Must Die! 2 older $14.99 12,924 92% 388k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,923) Robot Entertainment
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
STAR WARS™: The Force Unleashed™ II older $19.99 5,854 63% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,510,644) Aspyr Studios
LORT · EA $14.99 3,933 77% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,670) Big Distraction
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
The Bleakest Keep $9.99 719 90% 22k $215k (exactly $215,484) Cache of Bones
Queen's Loyalty $13.99 258 83% 7.7k $108k (exactly $108,283) eTIRUe
Brew $19.99 156 82% 4.7k $94k (exactly $93,553) Snow Leaf Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.