Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Psychological Horror

Of 60 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×321 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 136 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 136 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28M → $1.5k → $9.6k → $4.5k → $1.6k → $2.9k → $4.0k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,330)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $480,119)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 177
Announced 136
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Survival Horror
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 13,147 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Resident Evil 4 older $39.99 186,701 97% 5.6M $224M (exactly $223,985,190) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 15,628 80% 469k $28M (exactly $28,125,712) Rockstar Games
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
The Evil Within 2 older $39.99 19,781 91% 593k $24M (exactly $23,731,266) Tango Gameworks
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
The Evil Within older $19.99 21,477 84% 644k $13M (exactly $12,879,757) Tango Gameworks
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Tormented Souls 2 $29.99 1,675 88% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) Dual Effect
Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (1999) $9.99 2,329 89% 70k $698k (exactly $698,001) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Resident Evil 2 (1998) $9.99 2,084 90% 63k $625k (exactly $624,575) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Resident Evil (1996) $9.99 1,602 90% 48k $480k (exactly $480,119) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games
Dino Crisis $9.99 947 80% 28k $284k (exactly $283,816) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY $17.99 494 79% 15k $267k (exactly $266,612) ASD Games Studio
Fear The Timeloop $14.99 491 85% 15k $221k (exactly $220,803) TacoEaters
Dino Crisis 2 $9.99 709 87% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.