Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Alternate History
Only 12 developers shipped an Alternate-History Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM), made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×10.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×4.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×109 the market median. Revenue is up 6810% on the market; 70 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.9k (exactly $6,920) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,313) |
| Top 5% | $163k (exactly $162,937) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 65 |
| Announced | 70 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 6810% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter
- Price point
- $12.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,184 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
Comparable games
Zombie Army 4: Dead War 2021 · $15M 
Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M 
Dino D-Day 2011 · $2.4M 
Wanted: Dead 2023 · $1.2M 
Freedom Fighters 2020 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Zombie Army 4: Dead War | older | $49.99 | 10,028 86% | 301k | $15M (exactly $15,038,992) | Rebellion |
| | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
| | Dino D-Day | older | $9.99 | 8,039 86% | 241k | $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) | 800 North and Digital Ranch |
| | Wanted: Dead | older | $29.99 | 1,373 67% | 41k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) | Soleil Ltd. |
| | Freedom Fighters | older | $14.99 | 2,574 94% | 77k | $1.2M (exactly $1,157,528) | IO Interactive A/S |
 | Waves of Steel | older | $19.99 | 408 90% | 12k | $245k (exactly $244,678) | TMA Games LLC |
 | BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 | older | $3.99 | 1,680 89% | 50k | $201k (exactly $201,096) | Rabotiagi games |
 | C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) | $6.99 | 777 87% | 23k | $163k (exactly $162,937) | BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK | |
 | Knights Within | · EA older | $17.99 | 250 95% | 7.5k | $135k (exactly $134,925) | Indecision Labs |
 | The Black Ice | · EA | $14.99 | 147 77% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $66,106) | RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games |
 | Deadrock Redemption 2 | $14.99 | 123 86% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $55,313) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Core Awaken Rurumu's will | $12.99 | 58 96% | 1.7k | $23k (exactly $22,603) | CelLab | |
 | CHEMISTS: Dead Zone | · EA | $15.99 | 24 62% | 720 | $12k (exactly $11,513) | RPAX GAMING |
 | Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced | $6.99 | 33 75% | 990 | $6.9k (exactly $6,920) | KDV Games | |
 | Organic Burger Simulator | · EA | $14.99 | 12 58% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | Mehmet Bilici, Hüseyin Doğan |
 | JETPACK BIRDIE | $4.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $898 (exactly $898) | Alexey Kuleshov | |
 | OVERDEAD | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | rushandev1 | |
 | Grand Throw Auto | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Andrew Grbac |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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