Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Assassins

Only 12 developers shipped an Assassin Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Killing Antidote, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.6k against a market of $1.5k. 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 24 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $300 → $696k → $1.4k
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $424k (exactly $423,580)
Top 5% $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 57
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,420 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $6.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
Hitman: Absolution™ older $19.99 49,637 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,767,309) Io-Interactive A/S
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Hitman: Blood Money older $9.99 13,642 93% 409k $4.1M (exactly $4,088,507) Io-Interactive A/S
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Hitman: Codename 47 older $7.99 4,258 70% 128k $1.0M (exactly $1,020,643) IO Interactive A/S
Hitman 2: Silent Assassin older $8.99 3,748 81% 112k $1.0M (exactly $1,010,836) Io-Interactive A/S
Children of the Sun older $14.99 2,005 92% 60k $902k (exactly $901,648) René Rother
Hitman: Contracts older $8.99 3,094 86% 93k $834k (exactly $834,452) Io-Interactive A/S
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Oxide Room 208 $29.99 22 31% 660 $20k (exactly $19,793) WildSphere
Outbreak Zombie Plague $3.99 32 34% 960 $3.8k (exactly $3,830) Aurora Studios
UNPLUG - The Game · EA $10.99 5 100% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) GoldLime Studios
Subzero Stealth · EA $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Verona Interactive
Pretty Agent 2 $4.99 7 28% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MC GAME
Lost Dreams $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Cat Dreams Ar
SUSPECTO · EA $5.99 2 0% 60 $359 (exactly $359) YORQ Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.