Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Mystery
Of 51 developers who shipped a Mystery Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 113 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 25% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $6.7k (exactly $6,746) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 51 |
| Released games | 145 |
| Announced | 113 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Story Rich, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 9,300 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
Comparable games
Alan Wake 2012 · $21M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
SIGNALIS 2022 · $18M 
Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls 2017 · $6.7M 
Scars Above 2023 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Alan Wake | older | $14.99 | 45,662 89% | 1.4M | $21M (exactly $20,534,201) | Remedy Entertainment |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | SIGNALIS | older | $19.99 | 30,601 96% | 918k | $18M (exactly $18,351,420) | rose-engine |
| | Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls | older | $29.99 | 7,405 81% | 222k | $6.7M (exactly $6,662,278) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | Scars Above | older | $29.99 | 2,775 77% | 83k | $2.5M (exactly $2,496,668) | Mad Head Games |
 | Deadly Premonition: The Director's Cut | older | $24.99 | 3,243 65% | 97k | $2.4M (exactly $2,431,277) | Rising Star Games |
 | Alan Wake's American Nightmare | older | $8.99 | 8,352 74% | 251k | $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) | Remedy Entertainment |
 | The Sinking City 2 | $49.99 | 1,410 83% | 42k | $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) | Frogwares | |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version | $29.99 | 2,315 96% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) | KONAMI | |
 | Tormented Souls 2 | $29.99 | 1,675 88% | 50k | $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) | Dual Effect | |
 | Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered | $29.99 | 1,507 89% | 45k | $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) | Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics | |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version | $19.99 | 925 79% | 28k | $555k (exactly $554,722) | KONAMI | |
 | ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY | $17.99 | 494 79% | 15k | $267k (exactly $266,612) | ASD Games Studio | |
 | Heartworm | $14.99 | 449 86% | 13k | $202k (exactly $201,915) | Vincent Adinolfi | |
 | Flesh Made Fear | $17.99 | 279 92% | 8.4k | $151k (exactly $150,576) | Tainted Pact | |
 | Death In Abyss | $19.99 | 146 82% | 4.4k | $88k (exactly $87,556) | Agelvik | |
 | Dustland | · EA | $22.99 | 100 69% | 3.0k | $69k (exactly $68,970) | RedPad Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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