Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Lovecraftian

Only 11 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Sinking City 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×3.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1412 the market median. Revenue is up 1085% on the market; 24 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1085% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,066)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,452)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 29
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1085% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,823 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Silent Hill Homecoming older $39.99 2,642 47% 79k $3.2M (exactly $3,169,607) Double Helix Games
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Alone in the Dark: Illumination™ older $19.99 275 24% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Pure FPS
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL $11.99 93 89% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) GasGod Games, GLUE MAN
project BLARI older $5.99 153 87% 4.6k $27k (exactly $27,494) MaxEstLa
Project Tower $9.99 76 75% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Yummy Games
Tales of The Nightmares™ Episode One $4.50 53 88% 1.6k $7.2k (exactly $7,155) RedDot Studios
From Hell · EA $12.99 13 30% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Tomas Novak
The Mansion of The Macabre $14.99 10 20% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Team Tatou
Wall Of Insanity 2 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) VenomizedArt
BERENICE: Videogame $3.99 7 28% 210 $838 (exactly $838) SATORI Ent.
Bearly Alive $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Falling Light

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.