Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Nature

Of 37 developers who shipped a Nature Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 22 developers shipped in the last year and 67 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 67 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $900 → $359 → $239 → $600 → $300 → $30 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $980 (exactly $980)
Top 5% $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 95
Announced 67
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,786 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $980, 1 in 20 over $8.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Potentia older $19.99 350 68% 11k $210k (exactly $209,895) Wily Pumpkin
Erzurum older $0.99 4,358 42% 131k $129k (exactly $129,433) Proximity Games
VERGE:Lost chapter older $0.99 2,874 52% 86k $85k (exactly $85,358) GDNomaD
Tamarin older $29.99 78 60% 2.3k $70k (exactly $70,177) Chameleon Games
Amok Runner older $9.99 185 60% 5.6k $55k (exactly $55,444) Gamedeus
Protodroid DeLTA older $19.99 74 72% 2.2k $44k (exactly $44,378) Adam Kareem
Lorena and the Land of Ruins older $14.99 90 71% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,473) Shimenawan
Outbreak: Contagious Memories older $29.99 30 63% 900 $27k (exactly $26,991) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Turbo Chicken Simulator · EA older $14.99 41 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Balkanware
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
Primeval Genesis · EA $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) After Hours Digital
Organic Burger Simulator · EA $14.99 12 58% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Mehmet Bilici, Hüseyin Doğan
Folk Tales: Alageyik · EA $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Sanghı Studios
Bonk It! $4.99 18 88% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Slotherin
In Search of Freedom $10.99 5 20% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) Pierucci Studios
Day Breaker - Awakening Code · EA $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) KhadijaDev
Hive Havoc 3D $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Digital Dialysis Softworks
The Isolated · EA $0.99 33 66% 990 $980 (exactly $980) STuNT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.