Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Futuristic

Of 112 developers who shipped a Futuristic Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 265 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 265 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 265 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.1k → $657 → $2.7k → $1.2k → $1.9k → $599 (still earning) → $341 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,920)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 371
Announced 265
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 401,130 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.9k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 265 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M The Callisto Protocol™ 2022 · $63M PRAGMATA 2026 · $59M REMATCH 2025 · $36M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Watch_Dogs™ older $19.99 49,193 79% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,501,042) Ubisoft
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine - Anniversary Edition older $39.99 18,455 92% 554k $22M (exactly $22,140,464) Relic Entertainment
Dead Space™ 2 older $19.99 25,897 94% 777k $16M (exactly $15,530,431) Visceral Games
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Dead Space (2008) older $19.99 22,890 92% 687k $14M (exactly $13,727,133) EA Redwood Shores
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Endless Alice · EA $8.99 2,307 91% 69k $622k (exactly $622,198) HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.