Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Psychological

Only 15 developers shipped a Psychological Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Thing: Remastered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×723 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 33 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $7.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,625)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 29
Announced 33
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,963 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Thing: Remastered $29.99 1,203 89% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks
ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY $17.99 494 79% 15k $267k (exactly $266,612) ASD Games Studio
Second Sight older $9.99 280 81% 8.4k $84k (exactly $83,916) Free Radical Design
The Thing That Happened $22.99 94 57% 2.8k $65k (exactly $64,832) Mario Murkl, Zoltán Árva
Lurking Danger $11.99 49 65% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Farelas
Taken Soul | Đoạt Mệnh older $9.99 43 53% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) SOGA Std
Tales of The Nightmares™ Episode One $4.50 53 88% 1.6k $7.2k (exactly $7,155) RedDot Studios
Hollowreach - Alone $6.99 33 72% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) TDOG STUDIOS
Darker Skies: Remastered for PC older $11.99 16 68% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Steel Arts Software Ltd.
Folk Tales: Alageyik · EA $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Sanghı Studios
P4ST3L · EA $5.99 15 53% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) UsaginO
Dream Shell $6.88 7 57% 210 $1.4k (exactly $1,445) SuperPixelBo
Jaws of Hell $14.99 3 66% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Starving Lama Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.