Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Mechs

Of 38 developers who shipped a Mech Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2645 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 63 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $132k → $6.7k → $65k → $3.1k → $54k → $4.3k (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,186)
Top 25% $79k (exactly $78,821)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 119
Announced 63
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Looter Shooter
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 35,981 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 5 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  10. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 5 older $59.99 9,375 93% 281k $17M (exactly $16,872,188) SANDLOT
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
DAEMON X MACHINA older $49.99 6,172 85% 185k $9.3M (exactly $9,256,148) Marvelous Inc.
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 4.1 The Shadow of New Despair older $19.99 7,776 95% 233k $4.7M (exactly $4,663,267) SANDLOT
Exoprimal older $59.99 2,581 76% 77k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,026) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Vanquish older $19.99 6,974 89% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,182,308) PlatinumGames, Little Stone Software
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE: IRON RAIN older $59.99 1,256 58% 38k $2.3M (exactly $2,260,423) YUKE'S
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
MOBILE SUIT GUNDAM SEED BATTLE DESTINY REMASTERED $39.99 757 77% 23k $908k (exactly $908,173) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
RIG Riot $19.99 195 94% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Sage Boatman
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.