Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Heist
Only 8 developers shipped a Heist Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Star Wars Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $120, ×0.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $119 (exactly $119) |
| Top 25% | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter
- Price point
- $4.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.64 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 123,449 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
Comparable games
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015 · $44M 
Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M 
Star Wars Outlaws 2024 · $26M 
171 2022 · EA · $2.4M 
Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days 2010 · $2.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN | older | $19.99 | 73,137 91% | 2.2M | $44M (exactly $43,860,259) | KONAMI |
| | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
| | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
| | 171 | · EA older | $19.99 | 4,032 74% | 121k | $2.4M (exactly $2,417,990) | Betagames Group |
| | Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days | older | $9.99 | 6,813 68% | 204k | $2.0M (exactly $2,041,856) | IO Interactive |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | GangV | VR & PC Battle Royale | · EA older | $14.99 | 337 60% | 10k | $152k (exactly $151,549) | raptor lab |
 | The Game of Annie 安妮的游戏 | older | $7.99 | 466 62% | 14k | $112k (exactly $111,700) | potentknight |
 | Perfect Heist | older | $4.99 | 398 76% | 12k | $60k (exactly $59,581) | yeswecamp |
 | Warbox Sandbox | older | $6.99 | 279 78% | 8.4k | $59k (exactly $58,506) | Madar Games |
 | Hazard Levels | · EA | $9.99 | 70 71% | 2.1k | $21k (exactly $20,979) | Wales Interactive |
 | Beyond The Limits | · EA | $0.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $119 (exactly $119) | HardFMGames |
 | The Key | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Hetosoft Sistemas | |
 | Survivors 27 | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Studio 27 | |
 | Rocinha Wars | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Amadeu Augusto de Carvalho Venturini | |
 | Close to the Scene | $1.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | KafkaStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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