Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Superhero

Only 3 developers shipped a Superhero Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 13 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×18 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $1.5k. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×18 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,985)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $26,703,985)
Developers, 4 yr 13
Released games 34
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 161,379 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $26M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 18 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×18 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
Saints Row IV: Re-Elected older $19.99 57,525 87% 1.7M $34M (exactly $34,497,742) Deep Silver Volition
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Saints Row older $29.99 5,765 61% 173k $5.2M (exactly $5,186,770) Volition
Agents of Mayhem older $29.99 3,270 59% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,942,019) Deep Silver Volition
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Turbo Chicken Simulator · EA older $14.99 41 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Balkanware
Rampage Miami older $1.99 217 88% 6.5k $13k (exactly $12,955) RewindApp
Jesus Christ Simulator · EA older $1.99 184 88% 5.5k $11k (exactly $10,985) Luke Gayson
Evil Superhero Simulator · EA $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Superhero Central
Wima Magicamia Cute Girls Magic Battle 3DTPS $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) NoHitCreations
ZeroPoint · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Aysert Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.