Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Western

Only 15 developers shipped a Western Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Red Dead Redemption, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 870% on the market; 16 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 870% on the market, 16 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $899 → $43k → $0 → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $51,283)
Top 5% $30M (exactly $30,434,912)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 47
Announced 16
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 870% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 20,775 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $30M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  3. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  5. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  6. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  7. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  10. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $5.1k · 24 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
Red Dead Redemption $49.99 20,294 92% 609k $30M (exactly $30,434,912) Rockstar Games, Double Eleven
Evil West older $49.99 10,215 74% 306k $15M (exactly $15,319,436) Flying Wild Hog
GUN™ older $19.99 2,102 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,569) Neversoft
Oddworld: Stranger's Wrath HD older $9.99 1,534 87% 46k $460k (exactly $459,740) Oddworld Inhabitants
West Hunt older $9.99 1,522 84% 46k $456k (exactly $456,143) NewGen
Lead and Gold: Gangs of the Wild West older $9.99 907 70% 27k $272k (exactly $271,828) Fatshark
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios
WILD SEX: WET GIRLS older $9.99 203 60% 6.1k $61k (exactly $60,839) Octo Games
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Frontier Legends · EA $29.99 57 40% 1.7k $51k (exactly $51,283) Neojac Entertainment Inc.
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
GRIT $19.99 34 35% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Team GRIT
DeadboySkeleton $4.99 52 96% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) GreyCigarGames
Golfslinger $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Chaos Cactus
Darkman: Bounty Hunter $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) CDIS Lab.
Don't Shoot First! $0.99 7 100% 210 $208 (exactly $208) Sonomio Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.