Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Mythology

Only 13 developers shipped a Mythological Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fragile Reflection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $25k, ×17 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $7.2k → $3.6k
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,330)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 34
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Strange Brigade older $49.99 8,309 84% 249k $12M (exactly $12,461,007) Rebellion
Fragile Reflection $12.99 65 73% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) Spectra team
CODE:VALKYRIE II older $19.99 39 74% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Ulimworks
Nun of your Business $5.99 126 73% 3.8k $23k (exactly $22,642) Revolt Games
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
Outliver: Tribulation older $7.99 42 78% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) GBROSSOFT
Tutien Path $14.99 16 81% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Truong Thanh Triet
Tales of The Nightmares™ Episode One $4.50 53 88% 1.6k $7.2k (exactly $7,155) RedDot Studios
The Fate of Baldr older $9.99 16 68% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Ananki Game Studio
Zeus vs Monsters - Math Game for kids older $5.99 25 80% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) Peaksel
CODE:VALKYRIE III $19.99 6 66% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Ulimworks
Folk Tales: Alageyik · EA $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Sanghı Studios
Gods Of Fire $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nest of Games
Ankhway: The Interplanetary Legacy $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Mac S
Maze of Perdition $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Wesley J Nogueira

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.