Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + World War II

Only 12 developers shipped a WWII Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sniper Elite: Resistance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $7.2M, ×4830 the market median. Revenue is up 420% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 420% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $29k → $1.5k → $595k → $1.2k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,891)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,097)
Top 5% $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 84
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 420% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 6,721 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $7.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 4 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Zombie Army Trilogy older $44.99 14,285 85% 429k $19M (exactly $19,280,464) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
The Mean Greens - Plastic Warfare older $9.99 8,275 81% 248k $2.5M (exactly $2,480,018) Virtual Basement LLC, Code Headquarters… (Virtual Basement LLC, Code Headquarters LLC)
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Hitler is My Crush: Love and Fascism $0.99 146 88% 4.4k $4.3k (exactly $4,336) DarkLight Studio
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games
HITLER WAIFU 2 · EA $0.99 131 95% 3.9k $3.9k (exactly $3,891) Who We Are Games
Totenkampf : Anime Waifus vs WW2 Zombies $3.99 28 85% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Kawaii Kommando
Instruments of Peace $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Outlaw Games
Hentai USSR $0.99 39 87% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,158) Who We Are Games
Sky Combat: WWII Warplane Races · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.