Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Pirates

Only 10 developers shipped a Pirate Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of Water, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $390 → $1.8k → $30 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,794)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 29
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 73% positive over 3,297 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Hunt and Snare · EA older $29.99 720 80% 22k $648k (exactly $647,784) Ruffleneck, Hare, Drathek
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Hentai vs Evil: Back 4 Waifus older $9.99 118 87% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,365) Axyos Games
Salt and Sails older $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) DiaMMax
Shells Shooter older $6.00 16 100% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,880) Hotality Games
Boaty Tanks 2 older $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) EpiXR Games UG
Interstellar Plunderer older $4.99 14 92% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Cozy Frog Games
Cannonball Crew $2.99 20 85% 600 $1.8k (exactly $1,794) Sweetbeard
Shores of Plunder · EA older $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Snowchimp Interactive
Pirates Never Die $15.99 2 0% 60 $959 (exactly $959) Konvenant
Lost Soul of the Missing Island $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) CDIS Lab.
Painted Shores $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Concept Interactive, Ben Koper
Gunpoint Gambit $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Robert Bogdan
末日货轮:Doomsday Cargo Ship $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) goodmoxing, 古德模型
R Mate · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) keyboard Monkey
Pirate's Booty $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Awesome Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.