Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Horror

Of 148 developers who shipped a Horror Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 322 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1412 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 322 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 322 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 148
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $1.5k → $4.5k → $4.5k → $959 → $3.6k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 148
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,012)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577)
Developers, 2 yr 148
Released games 460
Announced 322
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 202,406 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 322 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Resident Evil 4 older $39.99 186,701 97% 5.6M $224M (exactly $223,985,190) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Last of Us™ Part I older $59.99 65,259 85% 2.0M $117M (exactly $117,446,622) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
Resident Evil 3 older $39.99 90,117 84% 2.7M $108M (exactly $108,113,365) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Tormented Souls 2 $29.99 1,675 88% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) Dual Effect
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.